r/politics • u/PoliticsModeratorBot š¤ Bot • 10d ago
Discussion 2026 Midterms News and Updates, September 21 - 27 (Thread 3) | Live Discussion
Please use this thread to discuss news, updates, and commentary regarding the 2026 midterm and associated elections.
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Election News and Updates
University of Florida: 2026 Early Voting Tracker
Election Resources
- USA Today via Reddit: The 2026 election season is underway: Hereās your monthly guide with important dates, voter resources
Streaming Links
C-SPAN, NPR, the PBS NewsHour's YouTube channel, and the Associated Press' YouTube channel are all places frequently hosting relevant political streams.
Past Threads: Thread 1, Thread 2
Other Event Threads
Announcements
r/politics will host another election prediction contest for the midterms. The post for the contest itself will go up sometime in late October. As of now, all toss-ups (according to Cook Political Report, as of late October 2026) for House, Senate, and Governor will be included.
We are taking suggestions for additional questions to ask within the contest. Message the moderators via modmail with any suggestions.
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u/MedicalWeird4067 10d ago
Hopefully midterms are not even close. šššI canāt handle the ātoo close to callā crap
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u/Salt-Planktons 9d ago
prepare to be disappointed. But also really we know deep down voting alone is not gonna fix things, theyāll still be there until january and can do much more damage
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 6d ago
Even if there's a wide blue wave and everything starts flipping, they'll be using that as proof it was rigged ("How the hell could we have POSSIBLY lost [insert deep red district here]?!") and fight this all the way until January. The only thing that might prevent this is if they're SO unpopular that the people just aren't there to do anything, since they'll be so dispersed at that point.
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u/Salt-Planktons 6d ago
yea a lot of folks are hanging their hats on this midterm election. the heritage foundation and other entities I wonāt name are preparing for this as well. musk already told us he literally rigged the previous election
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u/UnflairedRebellion__ 9d ago
A Trump+17 state senate district in Texas was just polled andā¦Talarico is winning by 11.
https://x.com/polltracker2024/status/2102150327101182374?s=46
Keep in mind that he won by 14 statewide, and that this is a Republican internal. If this is accurate (which I doubt, but still, insane result), and Texas swings equally as far to the left, weāre looking at Talarico+14.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 8d ago
Post by @acyn.bsky.social ā Bluesky
"FOX: Earlier, El-Sayed was pasting stickers of his Republican opponent on gas pumps with a finger-pointing to the price and the quote: I did that
[B roll footage of El-Sayed doing that]"
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u/Competitive-Box61 5d ago
I keep reaching out on reddit to ask republicans what this administration has done to help improve the lives of my family or friends. I haven't received a single response.
Republicans had a chance to show America that they were better than democrats. They had a chance to show us that they can change things for the better. They had a chance to literally do anything positive, and they failed.
Even if democrats fall short, at least they are trying to help people. That's good enough for my family.
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u/Babayaga20000 Washington 5d ago
But they dont WANT to do any of that stuff.
At least 98% of them. They saw how easy it is to manipulate the masses with fear and hate, get elected, and fill your pockets once youre in office with how corrupt the administration is. They saw how easy it is and now thats all theyre interested in. They dont want to govern, they just want to fill their own cups and cut off the water for the rest of us
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u/Competitive-Box61 4d ago
Update: I still haven't received a single response. They know this administration hasn't done anything for us. There is zero reason to ever vote for a republican again.
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u/bluebirdisreal 9d ago
My gut says dem win senate majority but somehow Maine still goes to Collins. Iām just hoping we avoid 51-49 because thatās going to give so much power to Fetterman
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u/gibbenskd 8d ago
I'm not so sure after the bribery scandal dropped today. It gives Jackson a very strong hammer to nail, and my understanding is this is just the first of a multi-part story, so it won't just get swept up in the next media cycle.
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
A new poll from Texas by Marist has Talarico up 50-44 and Hinojosa up 49-46.
https://bsky.app/profile/purrtah.bsky.social/post/3mw5l4ptkzs2b
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u/LadyFoxfire Michigan 8d ago
Ooh, he finally hit the magic 50% threshold! For those who donāt know, thatās important because it means the undecideds canāt make up the difference anymore. Thereās still a risk that people could change their minds or not show up, but itās not looking good for Paxton.
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u/Automaton_General 8d ago
There's also the certainty that Abbott, Paxton, Patrick and Wilks/Dunn are going to commit election fraud to prevent that seat from being filled by anyone but their handpicked candidate.
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u/AceofKnaves44 District Of Columbia 6d ago
Some of Americaās most prominent chief executives are expected to attend a state dinner at the White House Thursday honoring the arrival of Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The list includes some of Americaās biggest tech titans, including Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, Tim Cook, Sam Altman, Michael Dell and Sundar Pichai. Jane Fraser, the head of Citigroup, is also expected to attend, according to a Trump administration official who previewed the guest list on the condition of anonymity.
Fuck the oligarchy.
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u/Isentrope 5d ago
R pollster (Echelon Insights) Patrick Ruffini notes that the GCB is getting close to the point where a number of gerrymanders would crack:
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u/Fenix512 Texas 6d ago
Why does it always feel like Republicans are the "safe" seats and Democrats are the ones with the uphill battle trying to get them out?
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 6d ago edited 6d ago
Incumbency does that.
Being an incumbent comes with name recognition (likely the voter has either voted for them before or recognizes their name from news stories) and often ballots will even tell you if the person running is the incumbent, which a low-info voter will use as a rationale to vote for them based on just that information alone.
ETA: this was also a lot more of Harris's problem in 2024 than anyone wants to admit -- running up against someone whose name has been the top of the party ticket THREE times vs. someone who had only been there once before, as a VP, is difficult as shit. It doesn't explain everything, but it explains more than you'd think.
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u/runawaydoctorate 5d ago
It feels that way because you notice the uphill fights more. Some years definitely go easier than others for Democrats.
Part of what might be ratcheting up your sense of tension is this year is a rough one for Ds BUT, thanks to Trump and the Congressional GOP's squandering of all political capital, states that would ordinarily not be in play are, in fact, in play. Also, you're in Texas and people have been trying to flip a Texas Senate seat for ages so you're probably getting clobbered with this every. Fucking. Cycle.
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u/Cute-Boobie777 6d ago
Thats just what seats are up for it this year! In another cycle or two it will be the other way around. I think two cycles.
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u/Isentrope 5d ago
Trump is headed to Alaska and Iowa on top of trips to Florida and Texas (though I think those are actually Oklahoma and Alabama):
https://x.com/meredithllee/status/2103596191879672015
Alaska's going to be pretty chilly in October and takes a whole day of commute.
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
Ipsos/Reuters has Trump at 32% approval and 66% disapproval which is an all time low on their poll. The GCB is 43-35 D (D+8) which is a 1 point improvement from 44-37 D in their poll last week.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 9d ago
ProPublica: The FBI Anti-Corruption Squad Was Circling Susan Collins ā Until Trump Got in the Way
"Reporting Highlights
- Probe: In 2024, the FBI sought to launch a sweeping pay-to-play investigation examining interactions between Sen. Susan Collins and a top donor, records and emails show.
- Confession: The donor, an ex-defense contractor, told agents his company won millions in federal contracts by bankrolling campaigns of powerful politicians.
- Shutdown: After Donald Trump returned to office, the investigation died, a casualty of his purge of the FBI. Its closure shut a potential window into how Washington works."
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 8d ago
Post by u/mattgertz.bsky.social ā Bluesky
"Rough day for Susan Collins in the local Maine press, where ProPublica's bombshell story is the lead story.
[collection of screenshots of local news articles]"
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
Republicans are once more thinking of cutting back on spending in NC and GA SEN, with one source claiming that they will likely triage NC entirely by October as Cooper is up double digits in their internals and ad spending can only hope to halve that at best.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/09/22/midterms-republicans-money-gas-trump-01086411
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, who is running for IA-SEN, is calling for the House to be brought back into session in order to pass a diesel export ban, which Trump endorsed earlier this week.
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 8d ago
Cool, then Hegseth impeachment vote would be forced to happen before the midterms after all.
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u/JanitorKarl 7d ago
Republican Attack ads have started against Josh Turek. Received three ads in the mail just in the past week.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
The DCCC is reportedly getting ready to spend in OK-05. The late spend there in 2018 by Bloomberg's superPAC (when Kendra Horn won by a hair) was a sign in that year that the wave was going to be quite big.
https://bsky.app/profile/walkerbrown.bsky.social/post/3mw7qzexmuk2h
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u/UnflairedRebellion__ 6d ago edited 6d ago
You know whatās funny? Since Sherrod Brown is running for a special election in Ohio, if he wins it, then heās immediately back up for reelection in 2028. Thatās 3 straight elections in a row with this guy. š Poor man canāt catch a break.
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u/ToeSniffer245 Massachusetts 4d ago
Am I the only one who thinks Trump supporters donāt have the juice for another January 6th?
Yeah yeah his 30% ride or die cult but it was the result of months of pent-up Covid anger and it was a presidential election year. Nowadays his (outward) support has cratered, everything is more expensive, and I canāt imagine them taking up arms over some congressmen/senators they never cared about as much as Orange God.
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u/jdave512 I voted 4d ago
his supporters have no juice, but his administration is packed full of fascist that would drop democracy in a heartbeat. Mike Pence might've been one of the only things stopping Trump from straight up throwing out electors, but JD Vance has said he'd toss electors if given the chance. IMO people gloss over the worst thing to happen on Jan 6. It wasn't the riot, it was the fake elector scheme.
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u/Isentrope 4d ago
Another No Kings rally is planned for October 17th, with the goal of encouraging early voting and voter registration:
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
A GOP superPAC is cutting nearly 1/3 of its reserved air time in North Carolina for the Senate race, going from $21M to $14.5M.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
Abbott is now ordering a halt on all data center construction in Texas until an ERCOT audit is complete, the latest sign that this issue seems to be harming Republicans as they hold off on supporting data centers until after the election.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
Texas LG Dan Patrick said at a fundraiser that some GOP state senators are in trouble, that he and Abbott are in tight races, and that Paxton is tied with Talarico. Important to note the context of this being a fundraiser, since it's trying to scare up some more money from donors, but this isn't an admission we've heard from Texan GOP very often or at all before.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
GOP Senate superPAC SLF is adding $12M to its ad buy in Texas, after adding $35M yesterday. The total ad buy is $112M there now, on top of $60M that was spent in the primary trying to help Cornyn win (the GOP campaign arms will try to protect incumbents in primaries, as do their Democratic counterparts).
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u/TheBlueBlaze New York 7d ago
Republicans suddenly saying the Iran war should end, rather than blindly trusting Trump, must mean that there isn't even any internal signs of it ending any time soon. But to me this sudden pivot will only weaken their chances even further.
Midnight Hammer last year was supposed to be proof that the US could do force projection and keep adversaries at bay without having to go to war. Being able to abduct the leader of Venezuela and force the country into economic fealty was monstrous but perfectly in line with the conservative vision of what they want to do internationally. So to suddenly want a war of choice to end "prematurely" is not only a massive flip-flop, but an admission that they're in some way losing. And if there's two things that demotivate incumbent party voters, it's the cost of living going up and feeling like losers.
Republicans are now in the same bind that Democrats were in 2 years ago: When all you're offering is late and watered down versions of the other side's rhetoric, all that does is demotivate the people firmly on your side while telling the moderates that the other side must have a point. And at least the Democrats' de facto leader at the time stepped down, here the Republicans are now at odds with their own.
This could be on track to be the biggest midterm flip since 2006, which would be incredibly ironic: 20 years after a war in the Middle East dragged on for longer than expected and forced an economic strain on the country, the exact same thing happened again, only taking less than a year instead of four.
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 6d ago
There's a lovely meme I've been posting on other platforms that points out the folly of Dubya's war, and then the punchline is it's now twenty years later "and you can't believe there's an even dumber man".
Seems apt.
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u/UnflairedRebellion__ 5d ago
So, other than Texas being a red state, what other arguments are there that Paxton is favored, if any?
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u/BorsallinoKizaru 4d ago
Paxton was getting swamped in spending over the summer. That isn't the case anymore.
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
Dems are starting up their own coordinated ad buys with the DSCC and Democratic senate candidates in OH ($1.1M) and Michigan ($900K). Reminder that these kinds of buys are entitled to the favorable candidate ad rates without any cap on spending anymore thanks to a recent Supreme Court decision.
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
The scale of the Republican cash advantage on ads is pretty mind boggling. They've reserved nearly $900M so far against $670M for Ds. However, the actual GRPs may still be roughly even so far because so much of the Republican cash comes from superPACs instead of the party committees (in joint ad buys) or the candidates themselves.
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u/Salt-Planktons 9d ago
itās wild thatās this much cash just to push propaganda
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 9d ago
Convincing people to give a pedophile grifter unlimited power costs money, yo.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
A GOP internal in Texas' 9th Senate district, which voted for Trump by 17 points in 2024 but where a Democrat managed to flip the seat in a special election earlier this year, appears to have incumbent Democrat Taylor Rehmet up 53-39 over Leigh Wambsganss in this rematch race. The poll also has Talarico up 52-41 and Hinojosa up 49-40.
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u/an_agreeing_dothraki 9d ago
paywall but can't find another
you though the MO house map fight was over? the 8th circuit says no in a ruling that shows of the 8 parties involved in the process none of them know what the other is thinking. So currently neither map is constitutional, ballots have been printed, and the state is engaged in the biggest "how many times do we have to teach you this lesson, old man" in perhaps its history, between the map and several amendment measures.
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
Husted (OH-SEN) now joining in on calling for the Iran War to end. I imagine this might work a bit better for folks like Abbott who actually do not have influence over the war rather than Senators who do.
https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3mw57mhxya22u
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
The latest Strength In Numbers/Verasight tracking poll has the GCB up to 50-42 D with registered voters, a new high for Ds, and Trump's approval at 33-63 (-30), a new low for Trump.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
An interesting article on the state of polling right now, by a pollster:
https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/polling-has-become-a-playground-for
In essence, web polls are very different from traditional random digit dialing polls, and it's way too easy to make and proliferate a fake poll these days because of incentives for audience reach and comparative lack of consequences.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
Colorado GOP gubernatorial nominee Victor Marx is calling on his supporters to engage in 21 days of fasting to cause a shift in ideology before the election. In 2022, Doug Mastriano similarly called for 40 days of fasting before the election.
https://bsky.app/profile/kylec.bsky.social/post/3mw7sct2vlc2c
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u/Competitive-Box61 7d ago
Marx's campaign says the election "will all be determined by prayer," calling the election "a spiritual battle against the forces of wickedness."
God has been keeping republicans out of power in Colorado for awhile now. Praise the lord.
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u/Automaton_General 7d ago
"Give up beef six weeks before the election so by the time the election comes, you aren't mad about beef anymore"
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 6d ago
Fasting is one way to avoid having to look at food prices, assuming they're not even higher by the time you break that fast... š„“
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u/Isentrope 3d ago
Bobby Pulido thanks his opponent, Rep. Monica De La Cruz, for giving him the campaign advice to campaign at quinceaƱeras, saying he's performed at at least 75 of them since then and that he never would've thought of doing that if she hadn't mentioned it when she attacked him earlier this year. The algorithmic reach is apparently pretty good since people take pictures with him and they spread through large social media networks.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
The billionaire's wealth tax in CA is getting pummeled over the airwaves, with $102M in total ad spend, of which over 99% is from anti-tax organizations. As a result, the latest Berkeley poll has the prop only up 45-43 now.
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u/ioncloud9 South Carolina 9d ago
Spending $100 million on ads for a single campaign proves they aren't taxed nearly enough.
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u/BigGuante 9d ago
"The billionaire tax would ruin us, we can't possibly pay"
Spends $102M to keep the tax from passing
These people aren't taxed enough lol
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
A midnight Marist poll of Iowa has Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 50-42 in the Senate race, while Democrat Rob Sand is up 12 points in the gubernatorial race.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-iowa-september-2026/
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 9d ago
They saw what happened to Ann Selzer and decided to report this anyways.
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u/ioncloud9 South Carolina 9d ago
Her poll was the extreme outlier that cycle. Even Harris' internal polling never looked that good. They knew they were behind the whole race.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
Yougov's weekly poll has stuck to its guns and is now D+14 (52-38 D) on their likely voter screen and D+7 with registered voters.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2102390210570998228
It also finds that voters would prefer a Democratic Socialist to a MAGA Republican by an 18 point (54-36) margin.
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u/JonAce New York 9d ago
Hey all, just dropping by to soft announce that r/politics will likely be having another prediction contest for these midterms.
The post for the contest itself will go up sometime in late October.
As of now, all toss-ups (according to Cook Political Report, as of late October 2026) for House, Senate, and Governor will be included.
I'm taking suggestions for additional questions to ask within the contest. Either reply to this comment or send a PM to the mod team!
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u/Isentrope 8d ago edited 8d ago
This morning's polling roundup:
Marist has the national generic congressional ballot at a rather wide D+12 (53-41) https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2102685996156346860
CNN has the generic congressional ballot at D+8 (49-41) https://fxtwitter.com/i/status/2102733057736216879
A NY State Siena poll finds Hochul only up 9 points (50-41) over Blakeman, with the state generic ballot only D+11 (51-40). https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2102721465909194988 Combined with the relatively neutral generic ballot in California, the strong numbers for reach races in reddish states, and the national numbers remaining relatively high, it seems to point to any potential wave disproportionately being in purple/red swing states rather than a uniform shift.
A GA Yougov poll finds Dem Sen. Ossoff up 51-43, but Republican Rick Jackson up 47-44 on Democrat Keisha Lance-Bottoms in the gubernatorial race. Jackson is badly outspending KLB something like 100:1 from his personal fortune which KLB has not been able to match. https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2102760515164373152
An LA Mayoral Berkeley IGS poll shows Nitya Raman up 39-28 over incumbent mayor Karen Bass. Raman is a member of the DSA but focused her campaign on supporting housing development, while Bass remains unpopular owing to the handling of the 2025 fires. https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2102735634905420069
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u/NumeralJoker 7d ago
The NY State poll hints towards a possible anti-incumbency bias, or may also be influenced by local factors like DSA candidiates who perform well in NYC, but spook more blue dog dem voters outside of NYC.
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u/dawgbreath 8d ago
The GA Governor race will likely come down to turnout. Bottoms is not a great candidate but she is a black woman, which will help in the South.
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u/Automaton_General 8d ago
"This election is all about turnout"
No way. You're telling me that whichever side is able to get the most votes will win?
Riveting analysis.
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u/xBleedingBluex Kentucky 6d ago
That's not what he's telling you. Turnout and who gets the most votes are two different things.
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 8d ago
Lol, you think that's actually going to help her win a statewide race in Georgia? I assume she's hoping the blue wave pulls her along in with the tide. At least Jackson isn't also Secretary of State like Kemp was and overseeing his own election.
She needs to hold that debate even if he won't; she needs that edge.
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u/dawgbreath 8d ago
I meant that her being a black woman will help with the black voters. She will need as many as she can get.
I think she's assuming that the Ossoff voters will help her, along with the blue wave. Kemp is an old billionaire that supports the President. She needs to figure out a way to use that against him.
I live in Georgia, btw
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 8d ago
Same, and I saw how much being "a black woman" helped Stacey Abrams last go-round.
The smartest thing Kemp can do right now is keep his mouth shut. Anything he says will be fuel for Bottoms's fire.
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u/Ihathreturd Florida 8d ago
The Governor's race in Florida is now a toss up.
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u/General-Programmer-5 8d ago
Either we will see the biggest polling miss of all time or we will see a realignment election.
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u/NumeralJoker 7d ago edited 7d ago
Every bit of evidence I can see points far more towards the latter.
We already know what big polling misses in favor of the GOP look like, and their common element was always Trump himself being on the ballot, and in 2 out of 3 cases? Also being out of power when it happened.
I do think much about modern polling is still broken and unreliable, but this isn't 2024 Ann Selzer having one career ending outlier. This is numerous metrics across the board, for the midterm as a whole, on top of consistent shocking special election wins since the start of 2025 in the Dem's favor as well. This also isn't midterm primary polling, which do indeed tend to be unreliable. These are metrics from much closer to the end result, with consistent signs of falling support for the right's policies, even if a base cult still remains.
Now of course, anything is possible. A historic miss across the board? it absolutely can happen. But what we know about polling in the Trump era so far looks more to be a realignment of sorts, and more importantly, may even be underestimating the anger at the current admin.
And it's not hard to see why when our quality of life is rapidly collapsing around us in real time. I mean, you know?
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 6d ago edited 6d ago
I have been pointing out a pretty consistent +15(!) point swing for Democrats in virtually every special and off-year election that's taken place since the start of this second administration sending us all to a new circle of hell, and I'd be foolish to think it's going to stop now.
Fifteen points isn't going to flip EVERY red seat, but only the reddest of red seats will be able to withstand that.
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u/NumeralJoker 6d ago
Yeah, and quite annoyingly, that continues a trend that's arguably been shaping with special elections since 2022's Dobbs decision.
But 2024 was sadly the outlier because Trump himself holds unique power over a type of low info voter, particularly when he is out of power. He himself was begging his voters to "act like I'm on the ballot!" which adds even more weight to that theory.
But none of the data points to those people being motivated for him. Not even the smallest bits are showing the signs. 2024 had some signs at minimum and kept a lot within the margins of error. You can absolutely argue that for specific races too (TX/ME Senate), but even so, there has been a broader trend and people forget that there have also been populist poll misses in 'our' direction.
I could go on. I know people have been burned before, but even 2024 was bluer downballot than you would expect for a year where Trump won the friggin' popular vote. That too points to the exact anomaly I've been talking about, and the catch is he is not legally allowed to ever be on the ballot again, and is losing popularity by the day with all but his most loyal base.
Take nothing for granted. Vote. Outreach. Help people register. Be prepared to support legal battles and challenges. We all know this already, but we have been preparing for that now for over 2 years. Anecdotally, I'm seeing huge surges in volunteer support here in Texas, especially for a midterm year. And as much as I want us to win, our race alone is still not make or break, so if it's competitive? That still points to a worrying trend for the GOP.
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u/Bitter-Pace 7d ago
It is fascinating to see what is happening with this race. I recently read that Byron eliminated 8 mentions of Trump and even a photo with him from his website. Obviously Trump has been a disaster, but Florida is pretty much MAGAland. If they are running away from Trump in FL then the internal polling must be horrible for the Republicans. On top of that I think its pretty much a given at this point that Byron is going to under perform DeSantis in the deep red panhandle. I think there is a glimmer of hope in this race.
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 6d ago
Florida has always been a bit of the upsidedown politically, but if anyone is going to break the spell...
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
The Berkeley IGS poll forced LA Mayor Karen Bass to share her own internals, which had her up 35-33, while a pro-Bass group has her up 41-35 on Nithya Raman.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 6d ago
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 6d ago
commentary: the GOP will lose big this year and deserve to lose even biglier
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u/Isentrope 6d ago
TPOR's Texas poll has Talarico up 49-44, a drop of 1 point in the margin (from 48-42) but getting closer to 50.
https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-in-texas-general-election-662
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 10d ago
I realize this is "say anything to get elected" time but the Dem candidates suddenly throwing trans people under the bus is NOT HELPING.
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u/SpitefulSeagull 9d ago
It's so fucked
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u/bakerfredricka I voted 9d ago
I'm so worried for them, but fortunately they seem to have found community in each other....
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u/UnflairedRebellion__ 6d ago edited 6d ago
Iāve been looking into average forecast ratings. Here are the shifts from exactly one month ago.
Senate:
Alaska: Tilt R to Tilt D (flip, based on rating change, not the status quo of occupying the seat)
Texas: Tilt R to Tilt D (flip)
Iowa: Tilt R to Tilt D (flip)
Michigan: Tilt D to Lean D
Georgia: Lean D to Likely D
New Hampshire: Likely D to Lean D
Nebraska: Likely R to Lean R
Kansas: Likely R to Lean R
Governors:
Wisconsin: Tilt D to Lean D
Ohio: Tilt R to Tilt D (flip)
Alaska: Lean R to Tilt D
Texas: Likely R to Lean R
Florida: Likely R to Lean R
New Mexico: Likely D to Safe D
Maine: Likely D to Safe D
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u/TheBlueBlaze New York 5d ago edited 5d ago
Stop treating polls like they're early election results. They are far more imprecise than they want you to think:
Based on methodology, the poll could skew towards over-representing some voter demographics while under-representing others
The pollsters will attempt to weigh their results to their assumption of what the voter demographic makeup is going to be on election day
The people answering the poll are under no obligation to actually vote after answering the poll, or even to answer honestly (whether they're lying to the pollster or themselves)
Polls are inherently curtailed to the demographic of people that will willingly answer a political poll, which could skew in any direction based on national sentiment
Elections don't have a "don't know"/"unsure" option to vote for, so if that and/or the margin of error is higher than the winning margin, then it may as well be disregarded
Assuming that a small sample size will scale up directly to an entire population is inherently imprecise, like guessing exactly how many heads and tails a coin will land when flipped 1000 times based on the first 10
Maine is a perfect example, two trusted polls were taken during the same week, and one has Jackson up by 5 while the other has Collins up by 3.
At this point, because of the high gas/diesel prices, I'm assuming that any seat won by a Republican by less than 10 points 2 years ago (or six years for the Senate) is up for grabs now, and I'm leaving it at that. The best thing you can do is campaign for who you support, assume the candidate/party you like is one vote behind, and act like the next person you talk to is willing to flip their vote.
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
Iowa Republican Senate nominee Ashley Hinson is publicly calling for the end of the Iran war. Last week, she released an ad touting her bipartisanship, which is unusual for a Republican running in a state Trump carried by double digits in his 3 presidential campaigns.
https://bsky.app/profile/sahilkapur.bsky.social/post/3mw25gq3uxs2o
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
Morning Consult finally showing some more daylight between Ds and Rs, with the GCB up to 50-43. They made an extremely unusual choice to only poll "all adults", though, which is not standard for a poll this late in the cycle. Usually, likely voters are used or at least registered voters, since less than half of all American adults will vote in the midterm.
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
Jeffries released a statement downplaying Golden's endorsement of Lawler as an "11th hour endorsement from a retiring Congressmember who represents an out of town district more than 400 miles away". Jeffries has some personal beef with Lawler which might explain the stronger than normal response (also the fact that Golden is retiring anyways).
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
Suffolk has a poll of Michigan showing Democrat Abdul El-Sayyed up 47-40 on Republican fmr. Representative Mike Rogers. They also include an oversample of Eaton County, a "pivot" county in Michigan that includes part of the Lansing area, with AES up 46-41.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
The House Freedom Caucus is up with $6M in ad buy targeting 6 races, all-but one (PA-10) of which Trump carried by double digits last cycle:
https://bsky.app/profile/purrtah.bsky.social/post/3mw4rq45avk2l
AZ-02, PA-10, CO-04, TX-23, FL-14 and NV-02
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 8d ago
Post by @newrepublic.com ā Bluesky
"Representative Byron Donalds removed photos and Donald Trumpās endorsement [from his website]."
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
The Missouri maps are going up to SCOTUS for a third time now, and Kav is ordering a 2PM response. Last week, when he asked for a quick turnaround, it was essentially a formality before SCOTUS granted the TRO stay, so it's possible that this may be what he's going to do this time too.
https://bsky.app/profile/chrisgeidner.bsky.social/post/3mw5ty5vcf22m
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
Echelon Insights, a Republican poll run by Patrick Ruffini which is relatively neutral, has the GCB at D+8 (51-43), up from D+5 (50-45) previously. Trump's approval rating in this poll drops to a second term low of 36-64.
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
In a bit of a divergence from Siena's poll, Quinnipiac has Hochul up 58-39 over Blakeman in the NY-GOV race, though worth noting that it could be a case of undecideds in the Siena poll disproportionately leaning Dem to reconcile the two. Siena is a NY-based pollster though.
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u/robot_pirate 7d ago
This ad running on FOX:
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u/fatheadlifter Minnesota 7d ago
Not a lawyer but quite possibly blatantly illegal.
"The relevant rules restrict federal spending on purely partisan publicity and āself-aggrandizementāāgovernment publicity aimed at generating praise for itself rather than explaining its work."
Quick search on the US GAO website.
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u/RepealMCAandDTA Kansas 7d ago
They'll claim it's for national security because communists are enemies of America
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
This morning's polling roundup:
| Race | Outlet | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic Congressional Ballot | Emerson | 53 | 42 | Dems +11 |
| California-GOV | Berkeley IGS | 58 | 33 | Becerra +25 |
| Maine-SEN | NYT/Siena | 46 | 49 | Collins +3 |
| Maine-SEN | UNH/Lowell | 48 | 43 | Jackson +5 |
| Michigan-SEN | NYT/Siena | 49 | 43 | AES +5 |
| New Hampshire-SEN | NYT/Siena | 50 | 45 | Pappas +5 |
| North Caroli-SEN | HPU | 50 | 42 | Cooper +8 |
| Pennsylvania-GOV | NYT/Siena | 58 | 38 | Shapiro+20 |
| PA-07 | F&M College | 47 | 44 | Brooks +3 |
| PA-10 | F&M College | 47 | 44 | Stelson +3 |
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 6d ago
How the fuck is Collins still up, she literally has a bribery scandal in the news right now?!
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u/bonzombiekitty Pennsylvania 6d ago
Poll taken before bribery scandal was in the news. Plus, its Collins. She's a multi-term senator who keeps winning. She's, for whatever reason, appealing to a lot of Mainers.
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u/Suspicious-Horse-164 6d ago
Look at the spread D 46-48 R 43-49. I wouldn't put much faith in Collins 49. The generic ballot is in double digits. Plus 7 is a wave. Double digits is a tsunami. Only if you vote. Wait until the check hits the fan. edit for words
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u/Radiant-Specific969 3d ago edited 3d ago
Yeah, me either. I think the polls are literally wild guesses, since no one answers their phone any longer, between Cambodia's economic issues, and AI. I think the best metric is Fox viewership, which has declined since 2020, but is still very much the only news outlet in most rural red states. AK gets it's news from facebook (even worse.) TX is possible due to the high univison viewership, but rural white TX is still all Fox.
If I were going to bet on the prediction markets, it would be that the polls are wrong. I don't think the US is done with it's swing right, or with welfare for bilionaires. We are going to have to get even broker, and more miserable for the American right to get ousted. I wish I saw it differently.
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u/NoLemon5426 New York 10d ago
Commentary:
Ignore the polls. Vote. Get others to vote. If you find someone apathetic, use the Socratic method or whatever you can to get them to open up and maybe change their mind.
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u/Isentrope 6d ago
Chuck Schumer's superPAC has set up a new superPAC named "Texas Forever". Democrats are getting ready to spend there.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
The 8th circuit has now ordered Missouri to reinstate the 2025 redistricted map instead of the 2022 map they were going to run. SCOTUS stayed the TRO which, in theory, is more difficult to do than staying a permanent injunction, but the 8th circuit ordered an injunction. The injunction is stayed pending review by SCOTUS, however.
https://bsky.app/profile/stevevladeck.bsky.social/post/3mw2o56us3k2q
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 9d ago
Re: Representative Marcy Kaptur throwing trans people under the bus at length (see: Democratic U.S. Representative Marcy Kaptur releases two anti-transgender ads ahead of Election Day - LGBTQ Nation)
some Discourse from Bluesky that I think I agree with:
Post by @mikhailgorbaechev.bsky.social ā Bluesky
"I think a large undervote that ended Kaptur's career would be an effective and relatively low-cost signal to stop this nonsense."
and Post by @mayorseidel.bsky.social ā Bluesky
"Itās still much better if Talarico wins because thatās a Senate seat. One random House seat that wonāt make or break the margin in any scenario? It would actually be better for Democratic voters and Democratic policies if this particular Democrat ate shit because her own base left her race blank."
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u/bakerfredricka I voted 8d ago
This is actually so horrifying. I'm not transgender so can't speak on what that's like but my heart hurts for them right now!
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
ProPublica has dropped a pretty significant bombshell alleging a massive pay-to-play corruption scandal involving a Hawaiian defense company and numerous politicians, including Susan Collins.
https://bsky.app/profile/newsjennifer.bsky.social/post/3mw4gmjqyzs2q
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
SurveyUSA has a poll of California, showing Becerra (D) up 22 points, the GCB at D+25, and the Billionaire's Tax (Prop. 40) up 48-40.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
The latest Ivan Moore poll of Alaska has Mary Peltola winning in the second round of RCV 50-45. If RCV is run to the end, she wins 52-48 (D+3.6).
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u/Isentrope 6d ago
A superPAC just dropped $3M to back Bodnar in Montana:
https://bsky.app/profile/purrtah.bsky.social/post/3mwcfdf7p522v
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u/grapelander 6d ago
Interesting. A lot of people have totally written this race off, but by the numbers it would be at least as winnable as TX, AK, and IA if it wasn't a three way.
At this point, it's almost more worthwhile to campaign against Bankhead than it is Alme. They need to figure out how to finesse a message where to low-info but reliable democrats it just helps them understand the reality of this race, while to Tester/Trump type soft R voters, it comes across as attacking a radical socialist and boosting Bodnar's Independant credentials, deflecting "democrat in disguise" attacks.
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u/ApolloX-2 Texas 9d ago
āGov. Andy Beshear says Democrats must choose a governor to lead 2028 ticket ā Newsweekā
That is just so hilarious to me. Also I really think people are underestimating Andy Beshear for 2028 even though it hasnāt begun yet. He has a āaww shucksā look to him but he has fighting in deep red Kentucky for decades and knows exactly where to attack right wingers without making it about the average voters.
Being a Democratic Governor in Kentucky, winning twice and vetoing anti-Trans bills while national Democrats run away from Trans Americans is incredibly powerful.
Also as the head of Democratic Governors Association heās a known quantity.
At the end of the day the Democratic President will only sign what the Democratic Congress passes. He wonāt veto any Medicare for All bill but no President can promise you they alone will get it passed. Iām certain he can dominate a general election but Iām not sure he can win the primary before hand.
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u/ThePermanentGuest 9d ago
Heās correct, and heās my front runner for 28 if he enters. Executive experience is paramount, now more than ever.
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u/Hungry_Culture 9d ago
No thanks. Beshear's inaction over the past summer while Republicans are propping up a corpse for a Senate vote from the state he is a governor of and has the constitutional ability to replace has shown he is not a fighter and will not rock the boat.
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u/ApolloX-2 Texas 9d ago
What's the action you suggest? Break into a hospital and drag out a senior citizen?
Point to me the law that says the Governor can ignore the claims of a Senator and declare them dead without a death certificate and appoint a new Senator. Please tell us what exactly he could have done to declare McConnell dead and his seat vacant.
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u/zimbledwarf 9d ago
What action should he have taken? US senators are not obligated report to the state governors, and people (even elected officials) have a right to medical privacy.
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u/ProfLuigi 9d ago edited 9d ago
Lord help us. People genuinely think Beshear has the strength and power to win in 2028 because he has an āaw shucksā look while being from a red state?
Straight from the DNC/media mouthpiece.
Beshear did absolutely nothing for months while McConnell hid from his job and the people he represents in Kentucky. Lip service and inaction for something (still) so strange and insidious.
He never showed up to demand answers in person. Never pressed the concerns of his people outside of a few coordinated media moments. He never made an effort and we STILL donāt know whatās going on. Shame on him. In what world is being made a bitch by a half-dead Mitch McConnell a strength?
He has shown when it comes to taking action or demand rightful answers, he, like the rest of his kind, are weak and ineffective. Heāll be the same when it comes to us.
But but but he really knows how to āattack!ā Wild.
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u/ApolloX-2 Texas 9d ago
Beshear did absolutely nothing for months while McConnell hid from his job and the people he represents in Kentucky. Lip service and inaction for something (still) so strange and insidious.
If that's the only attack you can come up with then he's the perfect candidate as far as I am concerned.
Anything he did in Kentucky would have been overturned by the legislature. We don't need politicians who just say random things that aren't in their power to execute.
I promise he did everything you are saying and he was blocked by the Kentucky legislature you wouldn't give him credit and say he's a failure. There is no satisfying some people.
You also dismiss the point I made about defending Trans rights in Kentucky and acknowledging COVID as a serious threat and not going along with the administration during the crisis and opening up too early.
You don't give him any credit for that because you have decided he is a mouthpiece for the DNC and won't support him, if that isn't true then say so.
I m sorry to say but politicians even the President aren't all powerful and won't enact sweeping change just because they say so.
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u/jonasnew 5d ago
SCOTUS has allowed Trump to purge voter rolls today. How do you think it will impact the midterms?
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u/grapelander 5d ago
It will not affect the midterms themselves, this doesn't change the fact that mass roll purges within 90 days of an election are illegal and would get shot down in a second if anyone tries, even by this Supreme Court.
What it will do is give Trump something shiny to point to after the midterms are a bloodbath for Rs, to say "look, fraud." But they were going to do that anyways.
So all in all, not much.
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u/Party_Snax 5d ago
You are much more confident in the system than I.
Voter Purges within 90 days are illegal, but "illegal" has never stopped Trump so far. He could order them, intimidate states into obeying and deal with the fallout after elections are over. By then, the desired voter suppression has already happened.
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u/AcademicPublius Colorado 5d ago
He could order them, intimidate states into obeying and deal with the fallout after elections are over.
Except that voters would go to the courts and get an injunction within the week, and Trump would back down like the coward he is, just as he did with the media situation. (Some difficulty with CNN notwithstanding.)
Folks really attribute powers to him that he just doesn't have.
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u/Party_Snax 5d ago
Except that voters would go to the courts and get an injunction within the week, and Trump would back down like the coward he is
I mean hopefully, yeah. I just don't have much faith in the court system anymore, and the article in the OP is a good example why.
Folks really attribute powers to him that he just doesn't have.
He doesn't have the power to declare war on Iran, but nobody's stopped him thus far. It's not that most of us think he has powers he doesn't, it's that he just does whatever he wants and most of the time nobody stops him.
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u/AcademicPublius Colorado 5d ago
I mean hopefully, yeah. I just don't have much faith in the court system anymore, and the article in the OP is a good example why.
What has generally happened is that the Supreme Court, or some other agency, abdicates responsibility for issues and lets him do what he wants. However, on this particular issue (voter purges within 90 days) they haven't, and there's no reason to assume they're going to change their mind.
He doesn't have the power to declare war on Iran, but nobody's stopped him thus far.
He has the power to conduct strikes and to deploy troops for 90 days without congressional approval. He has used those powers to their utmost. If Congress got its act together, they could absolutely override him, but they've chosen not to do so.
It's not that most of us think he has powers he doesn't, it's that he just does whatever he wants and most of the time nobody stops him.
In general, asserting that he can "just do X" is attributing powers to him that he does not possess. He'll try thirty different ways of getting to the same result, but there is a reason Kilmar Abrego Garcia is not currently in El Salvador (for instance). More often than not, he loses on these gambles.
There are certainly things he can do, if not prevented by Congress, the judiciary, or some other agency. But reality and other organizations do impose limits rather frequently.
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u/echofinder 3d ago
All of the states that would go along with this, already have. Red states do sketchy voter purges all the time, and have been for years and years. The SCOTUS ruling doesn't grant Trump the power to purge anything; all it did was say that it's ok for the States to access a specific shitty federal citizenship database. Again, the states that would want to do purges, already do those purges; they don't need Trump for that at all.
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u/UnflairedRebellion__ 6d ago
Fun fact: George Santos is competing in season 5 of Special Forces: Worldās Ultimate Test. Yes, really.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 6d ago
there is no George Santos fact on the internet that you can straightforwardly believe without a crack team of journalists at your disposal (and an advanced degree in epistemology to parse through the evidence they gather)
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
A Texas State University poll finds Talarico up 47-46 over Paxton and all other Dems trailing. The difference with Siena's 6 point Talarico lead remains the Hispanic vote, which is "only" Talarico+19 here.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 8d ago
Sidebar: just posted by The New York Times Opinion Reddit account in this sub: Weāre writers for New York Times Opinion. Ask us anything about how Trumpās presidency has been affecting women, both inside the administration and out.
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u/Otherwise-Metal5143 8d ago
Does anyone know if the Texas debate is still happening tonight ?
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 8d ago
I don't know for sure, but because I cannot find info on whether it is happening tonight more recent than a month ago, I believe it has fallen through.
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u/Isentrope 6d ago
$10M more for SLF (GOP) into Texas:
https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/2103234953261486091
The D superPAC SMP is meanwhile still avoiding Texas in its latest $23M buy on 3 defense (GA, NH, MI) and 5 offense (NC, ME, IA, AK, OH) races:
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u/BossHawk8754 Texas 9d ago
What does Silver think is gonna happen?
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u/SnowyMole 9d ago
As of yesterday, 65% for Democrats to win the Senate. The model says it looks like a D+8.6 environment. Yesterday he explained that even outside the model, if you look at historical data for when the economy, gas prices, and incumbent popularity are all this terrible, you'd expect about a D+8.7, so that's pretty much in line. That said, it's still an awful senate map for D, which is why it's only 65% in that environment. Democrats need to hold/flip all tossups including Maine, and then win two out of Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska.
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u/ioncloud9 South Carolina 9d ago edited 8d ago
It is an awful map, but at the same time an historic opportunity to pick up gains in states they wouldn't have imagined. Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Florida, Maine, North Carolina are all in play.
I'd rather win the senate than the house. At least with the Senate they can stop all of his appointments and block every single judicial appointment for the next 2 years. If the Senate is lost, i wouldn't be surprised if Alito or Thomas resigns before the new senate can be sworn in and their replacements rushed through. This will likely remain a Democratic senate for at least 4 years if its won.
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u/chunkerton_chunksley 9d ago
Alito not Scalia, Antonin is dead.
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u/SpitefulSeagull 9d ago
Briefly tuned in to their new podcast and he was going on about AI being like magic. So I'd say his brain is fully melted.
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u/foodisbad_2 8d ago
So who will win the mid term
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u/lastres0rt Georgia 8d ago
Well, there's an unpopular war and high gas prices, the news media is currently boycotting the president over his attempts to replace them with a YouTube channel, and this administration still hasn't released the full Epstein Files or accounted for the credible allegations therein that the president raped a 13-year-old.
But, y'know, Matt Gaetz thinks you should know the Democrats want to let trans kids live, so it's a tossup. /s
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u/Competitive-Box61 7d ago
America will win because republicans are going to get their asses handed to them.
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3d ago edited 3d ago
[deleted]
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u/All_Lurker2 3d ago
The J6ers had every right to protest up to the Capitol.
They then turned to violence.
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u/Isentrope 4d ago
The anti-wealth tax superPAC in California (opposed to Prop 40) has now raised $228M and spent the vast majority of it, with more money pouring in:
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u/6beerkdawg 9d ago
How come no one is ringing major alarm bells about Minnesota with the Gov and Senate elections being so close in a blue state? We can't afford to lose anything we already have control over.
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u/lazyFer 9d ago edited 9d ago
As a Minnesotan, what pollster thinks is close here?
Ahhh, survey USA. 5-8pt swings in a short period of time while also shitting the bed with primary polling... My guess is terrible poll design or sample population
Edit: they think an equal number of Republicans and democrats will be turning out. That feels like an odd determination given the environment. Also strange they have 2 Republicans winning state wide elections, which hasn't happened in 20 years, during this cycle which is historically bad for Republicans. Something just feels off about this poll
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u/Boris_Godunov 7d ago
Edit: they think an equal number of Republicans and democrats will be turning out.
Note that about 2X as many Democrats turned out to vote in the primary as Republicans. There's no question that an even voter split is ludicrous.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
That pollster did not do very well in the primary and the parties don't seem to be seeing the same thing because none of the PACs or superPACs are really spending there.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 6d ago
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u/LadyFoxfire Michigan 3d ago
What happened to John James in the Michigan governorās race? I just looked up the poll averages, and he dropped off a cliff in the last couple of months.
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u/Real_Crab9928 8d ago
Watching college and pro football all weekend, it was 75% politics ads. A substantial number of these were anti-trans ads
What exactly do they think the .04% of people who are trans are going to do? I mean there is no end game like trans people are going to kill all the puppies or something. Just āomfg trans people are badā or ācandidate x supports the pro-trans agendaā
I mean the few trans people I know are keeping a low profile until this idiocy goes away and are afraid to use any public bathroom. What is the āpro-trans agendaā ? That they should be treated with respect and kindness like every other human.
Its just stupid. Does this work?